Alpharidge Capital, LLC is a group which specializes in custodianship plays in the OTC market. They bill themself as “a shareholders’ rights activist, building shareholders’ value through custodianships, mergers & acquisitions, and entrepreneurship development”. They take empty stock shells, apply for custodianship, and when/if granted they will clean up their share structure as much as they can and then find a good company to merge with the empty shell. For the merging company, it’s a cheap route to getting publicly listed without having to jump through all the hoops of doing an IPO.
That’s about the extent of my knowledge on what they are and what they do. I know they’re spearheaded by a guy named Frank I. Igwealor. He seems like a nice enough guy and competent at what he’s doing, but that’s as far as I can speak on him. I’m not trying to sell you on him or Alpharidge, I’m literally only here because of the charts. To be honest, I rarely actually trust much of anything or anyone in the OTC, but if the charts are promisingly bullish on a long enough time frame, I tend to trust that there’s something there.
While I’m not here to sell you on Frank and Alpharidge in and of themselves, I am saying that there’s good reason to start to watch these plays again. I’m not following all of the AR plays incredibly closely, but from what I see many of them have followed a similar pattern. Most started to run and breakout to new significant highs either in late 2020 or early 21, and by mid 2021 they were on fire. Mergers were beginning to be announced and sentiment was positive and through the roof. However, by early 2022 the updates all seemed to come to a halt and that combined with how much most of the tickers had run led to a long period of pulling back and declining sentiment.
And that’s where we sit today. Most of the tickers are quite a bit off of their highs from last year and most of the retail chasers have long moved on, having written off the plays entirely after assuming they’re dead in the water.
So the other day I was doing my weekend scanning and decided to run through all the AR plays and look at their big picture charts, ie take a step back and look at a monthly chart covering 5 – 10+ years, and that’s when something stood out to me about almost all of the charts. Though they’ve all retreated quite a bit off of their 2021 highs, the monthly charts are still incredibly bullish and the ‘selloffs’ of 2022 look more like bullish consolidation and ‘healthy’ pullbacks on these time frames. What I believe this likely implies is that these AR plays weren’t dumped by smart money into the rallies from last year, instead smart money has been holding and likely bidding on the way down while the plays all cool off and come back down to earth. I believe this also then implies that there is (at least) a second wave coming for many of these tickers, with some insane moves being possible when/if the peaks from 2021 are broken through.
In addition to these bullish charts consolidating on a very long term time frame, which I’ll post below, I believe the sentiment in the OTC and specifically towards these plays is also perfect for monster runs. The huge runners are never the plays that everyone expects, in fact when sentiment gets too bullish and manic it tends to be a kiss of death for a stock (at least temporarily). However when the sentiment turns south and all the retail hot-stock-chasers all move on, that leads to conditions which make for ideal fertile soil for future breakouts to blossom from.
So why has the sentiment turned sour here? From what I gather the market is just desperate for more information and updates from these mergers or potential mergers. The stocks had huge runs and were holding massive gains, but without more definitive bullish announcements they all lost ground steadily while longs on the fence and flippers got out. Most of these plays seem to be hampered from a lack of updates rather than actual bad news, so that leaves open the window for positive announcements to start to roll in. And with the sentiment this poor, it won’t take much in the way of good news to have an outsized positive effect on the pps. And then with the big picture monthly charts all looking ripe and primed for massive continuation breakout moves, the potential for a wave of mania to sweep back into these tickers is much higher than I think most realize. On a monthly chart time frame, the moves are massive, so a confirmed continuation breakout on any of these plays would imply huge runs.
Of course I could be wrong about all of this, but I think monthly charts like you see below are too strong not to mean something is coming. I think people simply got bored and moved on from these plays, which is perfectly normal and to be expected in the market, and they’ve prematurely moved on while the stories are still in progress. I think the ‘dumb money’ moved on while the ‘smart money’ quietly had their bids out. I think the poor sentiment is perfect for a bullish tsunami to hit us and I think once two or three of these plays start to run hard it could lead to FOMO moving in and many of them taking off. Whether or not any of these are actual good long term investments or not is not what I’m arguing, just that at minimum I believe they will have another wave coming similar in nature to their first ones, and quite possibly even better as subsequent waves tend to get bigger and better.
With almost all of these AR plays now having sold off on relatively low volume (compared to the volume on the way up), making them quite attractive buys sitting on or near long term support, the risk to reward is too good to pass up imo. If I’m right about all of this then the upside could be quite incredible from these levels, but don’t mistake my bullishness for unbridled enthusiasm. I think the play is to buy the quiet times like this when it makes sense, but when things heat up and plays start to run hard, I highly advise to take some profits into the bullish mania. You can always hold a core position throughout all of the ups and downs, but rarely have I ever regretted selling in blocks and taking partial profits into strength. Any questions about this topic can be brought up in the chat room where we discuss these sort of tactics regularly.
Below I’ll post the monthly charts for the AR plays which stand out the most to me. The charts are auto-updating ie not static shots, so I’ll post the current pps at the time of this article as well as the level which marks the breakout spot to new all time highs. The break of the 2021/22 high will mark the beginning of the potential second waves on these plays, so in essence those prior highs will mark the new floor when and if things go well. For example, the first play I’ll post is $OCLG, with a current price of .003 and it’s key breakout spot at .02 (ie the last peak it topped out at). Should there be a continuation breakout at .02, it stands to reason that the upside could easily be 5x – 10x from there, and possibly much more. Considering the current pps is .003, that puts the potential upside from currently levels at pretty ridiculous multiples.
$OCLG – current pps: .003 – breakout spot around: .02
$ILST – current pps: .0049 – breakout spot around: .02
$ILIM – current pps: .0022 – breakout spot around: .0043
$ICNM – current pps: .00125 – breakout spot around: .003 – .004 range
$CCWF – current pps: .0149 – breakout spot around: .05
$MNDP – current pps: .006 – breakout spot around: .018
$TMXN – current pps: .0103 – breakout spot around: .03 – .04 range
$NOUV – current pps: .0006 – breakout spot around: .003
$FCGD – current pps: .0003 – breakout spot around: .0025
$MTEI – current pps: .0624 – breakout spot around: .13
Other Alpharidge plays not mentioned: $PRDL $CIVX $NWTT $CDBT $NHLG $JPEX – The tickers posted here and above aren’t all of the plays I’ve seen tied to AR, but I think these are the bulk of them.
In no way is this a blind endorsement for Alpharidge, Frank or any of these plays. I think any and possibly all could be in play at some time down the road, but the point of this post is to encourage the chat room to start watching these plays because there’s quite a lot of potential here from what I gather. These will all be news dependent, so in that regard I’m playing things by ear, however I’m also already long a few of these tickers/charts that I’m especially partial to. Full disclosure: I’m long $OCLG, $ILIM and $NHLG at the time of this writing, but I plan to be fluid and dynamic as things play out. There are some AR plays which have very little liquidity + wide spreads and for all I know those could be the biggest runners in the end, but those are going to be the toughest ones to commit to early as the absence of liquidity makes entries more daunting and challenging.
One final point to make, the timing of any potential runners is going to be the biggest wildcard factor. Setups on a monthly chart take a looong time to play out – since each candle literally takes a month to play out. Case in point, my contention is that this most recent ‘selloff’ on these AR plays is actually just healthy consolidation, but even that ‘healthy’ consolidation has taken upwards of 7+ months and counting. I could be spot on with my bullish thesis here, but that may mean multiple months still of these plays working back into uptrends, before more months of uptrending ensues. However, even if it does take a while still for anything to pan out from all of these plays, moves on this time frame can be massive and a breakout on this scale would be well worth the waiting, watching and hunting. My hope is that over time not only do many of these plays run impressively hard from here, but that our chat room is ready for them and can take full advantage. Until then, we stay alert.